Escape from the Suburban Fringe

The Brookings Institution's Christopher Leinberger has an awesome article in the March Atlantic Monthly (The Next Slum?) about what the future may hold for the outer suburbs and their McMansions. He posits that they may become tomorrow's slums.

Mr. Leinberger finds that the recent decline of some of these places is usually attributed to the subprime-mortgage crisis and its wave of foreclosures. And while true, he believes that in the future, that a structural change in the housing market, in the way that more Americans want to live and work, is what will really work against these places. Says Leinberger:

"Twenty years ago, urban housing was a bargain in most central cities. Today, it carries an enormous price premium. It is urban life, almost exclusively, that is culturally associated with excitement, freedom, and diverse daily life. It’s crucial to note that these premiums have arisen not only in central cities, but also in suburban towns that have walkable urban centers offering a mix of residential and commercial development. People are being drawn to the convenience and culture of walkable urban neighborhoods across the country—even when those neighborhoods are small. "

He says builders and developers have noticed and are responding to accommodate the demand by providing an alternative to conventional car-based lifestyles. They do so by developing infill in the cities and inner suburbs and even finding a way to bring the city to the newer suburbs. He calls these new places "lifestyle centers." Think Reston. He says demographic changes and increases in gasoline and heating costs will only hasten this change in development patterns that favor new and traditional downtowns aligned with transit. He also echos much recent data that says the turn towards more walkable living means better health. So as America moves toward these changes he paints a sad picture that awaits many of today's sprawling outer burbs:

"... much of the future decline is likely to occur on the fringes, in towns far away from the central city, not served by rail transit, and lacking any real core. In other words, some of the worst problems are likely to be seen in some of the country’s more recently developed areas—and not only those inhabited by subprime-mortgage borrowers. Many of these areas will become magnets for poverty, crime, and social dysfunction."

If you live there now, escape while you still have time.

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Chris Hamilton is the Commuter Services Chief for Arlington County, manager of CommuterPageBlog and a biking/Metro commuter from Rosemont in Alexandria.

Comments

[Mari]

I believe poverty can make its way to the burbs, regardless of poor transportation options. I grew up in a poor section and back then there was no bus service anywhere in the county. Poor people get around by sharing rides and driving junkers. I saw the same thing out in Western Massachusetts where there was one little rinky dink bus system meant to service the 5 colleges (Smith, UMASS, etc) and you had your poor there too. If the rents are cheaper out in the burbs, then the poor will go there.

[Commuter 182]

Sounds like fear-mongering from the anti-suburban and anti-automobile crowd. While some suburban areas may deteriorate and become future slums, other developing factors can also prevent that from happening:
1. The development of plugin-hybrids, full electric, fuel-cell, or other technologies that make lack of fossil fuels less of a factor and prolongs the use of automobiles.
2. Extension of commuter rail, managed lanes (HOV, HOT), and more commuter buses leaving from Park & Ride lots further out into the burbs to counter the increasing traffic.
3. Development of employment centers in suburban towns further away from downtown areas and closer out to "Sprawland".

IMHO, the suburbs are less likely to attract poverty, and hence, crime, than say, a blighted urban area. The reason is that to even live in the burbs, you have to be able to afford transportation, most likely an automobile. But blighted urban areas have no problem accommodating the immobile poor with either public transportation or "amnenities" such as crack houses within walking distance.

If suburbs still go into decline despite all of the above, they won't all become slums. Because declining real estate prices can also attract developers looking for opportunity, most burbs that become unsustainable may be transformed into one of the following:
1. Revert back to farmland.
2. Regional Parks or golf courses
3. Industrial use away from populated areas.
4. Re-zoned into denser, village or town-like communities.
5. Become exclusive communities for the truly wealthy. These people will always be able to afford transportation regardless of what happens to oil prices and they will tear down the McMansions to make room for their real ones.

[Kevin Beekman]

I don't think that Leinberger is the one who coined the term "Lifestyle Centers". I think that came from investment types trying to commoditize real estate into categories. Leinberger has some papers about this on his website. See his paper about the "Nineteen Standard Real Estate Product Types" at: http://www.cleinberger.com/AdminHome.asp?ArticleID=205